Popular or not, it’s an important part of a Merchandise Planner’s job to mitigate risk. This naturally associates to the idea of pessimism, and can give Planners a reputation for only seeing the downside.
I have a different view and have taken some creative license to illustrate, using the stereotyped “glass half full or half empty” outlook. Maybe Merchandise Planners see something everyone else doesn’t …
What shape is the glass ?
Half full or half empty is not that straight forward. Take, for example, the shape of the glass. If the sides aren’t straight up and down, where is the halfway point?
Do we mean halfway in volume (of liquid), or halfway in distance (top to bottom)?
We need consider what assumptions underpin our default thinking.
What is in the glass ?
Here’s one to make you grimace. What’s in the glass?
Is it something you want to be drinking? If not, half empty is a much more optimistic view than half full!
Think in terms of Sales and Profit. If you are having to swallow a run of low margin sales, wouldn’t it be good to know you are nearing the end of that pain?
How many glasses ?
If you’re already 8 down, maybe the idea of that next glass still being half full makes you groan.
Seeing it as half empty would come as a welcome relief!
Maybe this is how you feel about problem stock that’s been weighing down your mix for too long. Enough already!
Whose glass is it?
Whether it’s half full or half empty might not be relevant to you.
Is it even your glass?
Know your business, know your strategy. Stick to it, or course correct, based on your goals, rather than being unnecessarily swayed by what everyone else is doing.
What is your goal?
And speaking of goals - what is your goal?
Are you aiming to finish the drink, or aiming to make it last?
Half empty could mean you are well on your way to achieving your goal (which would lift your spirits, not dampen them).
What is your deadline?
How long have you been drinking? What time do you need to leave?
If you’re in a hurry to finish up and go, half empty is the optimistic outlook.
Perhaps you need to exit seasonal or problem stock that’s been holding up cash for too long. Drain that glass and be done!
What size is the glass?
If it’s a giant glass, half empty could be good. If it’s a teeny glass, perhaps not.
Different types of drinks come in different size glasses, and more is not always better.
One size does not fit all; and one view, one approach, one benchmark, does not fit all scenarios in Retail analysis.
What are you measuring
Air or liquid?
A glass typically considered half empty, or even completely empty, could be considered half full, or full, IF you are measuring air rather than liquid.
It matters what you measure. Many businesses focus only on Sales, without measuring other things that are as important or more important in certain contexts … like profit.
You get the picture. It’s a common theme in all my articles and all my teaching. I’m a big advocate of embracing the “grey areas” in Merchandise Planning. Clearly, I can see cases where a glass half empty would be the preferred (optimistic) scenario.
I’m talking about pushing past default positions, and outdated assumptions, rather than plodding through analysis “check list” style, with no value add or interpretation.
When it comes to Merchandise Planning, it’s not really about optimism or pessimism. It’s about perspective and context. When you apply those as a filter you get “realism”. When you have a clear view of what’s really going on, and consider valid influences, you are in a position to optimise outcomes.
So to take the analogy way too far, as I love to do - I hope this play on a concept has played on your thinking, and will help you add a twist to the usual.
I’ll cheers to that!
Artwork credit: Rebecca Stock