This is a series of “mini blogs” in the format of PLANNING POSTCARDS.
They are captured here as 2 separate blog posts …
Series 1 - The Covid Series
I shared these messages through March and April of 2020, as the Covid-19 pandemic was unfolding across the globe.
Series 2 - The Summer Series
These were released through December 20 and January 2021, almost a full year on from the start of the pandemic.
PLANNING POSTCARDS - Introduction to the “Covid” Series
You’ve got mail 📩
Hi Planners,
I left home at 17.
Moved from Durban to Cape Town (2 hr flight) to start uni. It could have been a very anxious time, but happily I settled into residence and student life quickly.
I attribute that in part to a steady flow of letters my parents sent – EVERY WEEK, even 2 or 3 per week!
They made me feel connected, missed, and valued. The act of writing and sending them every week, showed me how much they cared … and that is the feeling I hope to convey to you.
They weren’t sentimental, packed with news nor even practical advice.
But they were frequent, and consistent.
Every time I walked into res and the receptionist called out “Susan, you’ve got another letter”, I smiled and felt good.
With this in mind I’ll be sending you a PLANNING POSTCARD every Tues and Thurs at 9am for a month.
My intention is to deliver valuable content, both for now and the future …
- to keep your mind ticking
- with tips for those still working
- things to consider for when you get back to work
- and of course, to remind us of all we love about Merchandise Planning
Just as important, I hope they brighten your day 🎈
Take care, Susan
PLANNING POSTCARD No.1 – Maximise or Mitigate
💌 You’ve got mail!
Hi Planners,
A dynamic that is core to every Merchandise Planning activity and decision, is the requirement to maximise or mitigate an outcome. Our actions must strike the right balance, to make the most of it, without putting the business at risk. It’s our job to evaluate the odds in each case!
This is evident from pre-season budgeting, to monthly replans, range builds, markdowns, allocations and trade analysis.
- Set the bar high to strive for a budget, but don't be unrealistic and jeopardise margin.
- Back a trend, but not at the cost of the season.
- Offer choice through width and service through depth, but don't overstock and compromise sell through.
- Reduce the price to move the stock, but don't sacrifice too much margin.
How much is enough vs how much is too much; what is the impact, and what is an appropriate trade off?
This is our skill!
Share your examples …
Take care, Susan
PLANNING POSTCARD No.2 – Layers & Levers
💌 You’ve got mail!
Hi Planners,
Do you remember your “love moment”, when you first fell for Merchandise Planning? For me it was the penny drop on the levers; the way the measures are interconnected and interdependent. That’s when I really got it, saw the layers, and understood how to influence, control and predict outcomes.
Call me tragic, I still get a kick out of pulling those levers and watching the impact flow through my merchandise financial plan and analysis
👉 tweaking margin to affect closing stock and forward covers
👉 adjusting markdowns to shape the closing stock position and health
👉 modelling price and unit volume trade offs
So many choices!
Learning my craft as a fast track trainee planner with Foschini, we drilled these dynamics on paper - recalculating all the knock effects resulting from of a small change in one measure.
I thoroughly recommend it.
Do try this at home 😉.
Take care, Susan
PLANNING POSTCARD No.3 – Ask “Why?”
💌 You’ve got mail!
Hi Planners,
One of the most challenging times in my career was, not surprisingly, also a time of high personal & professional growth. A fundamental problem solving skill I learned then (thanks to an extraordinary CEO) was the art of root cause analysis.
The “5 Whys” is a permanent part of my toolkit. Simple and effective, it cuts through superficial symptoms to reveal underlying issues.
State the problem, ask WHY it occurred, continue to ask “Why?” 4 more times. [Kids have a super power in this 😉].
📢 Statement: We're losing sales in basic black T-shirts
🤔 Why? We keep selling out of best sizes
🤔 Why? We don’t order enough of them
🤔 Why? The size curve is wrong
🤔 Why? Size analysis is done too late
🤔 Why? It’s done ad hoc but should be scheduled
✅ Fix: Schedule size analysis for 6 wks after stock drops into stores
The process addresses the real issue, breaking a cycle of misdirected effort.
Give "5 Whys" a try and let me know how you go in the comments below.
[Why? Because I said so 😂]
Take care, Susan
PLANNING POSTCARD No.4 - Responsive versus Reactive
💌 You’ve got mail!
Hi Planners,
Knee jerks, pendulum swings, feast and famine - do they sound familiar to you? I know I’ve experienced my share!
I see them as results of REACTIVE behavior ... rushed decisions that lead to
🔥 firefighting cycles
🔥 chaos and confusion
🔥 frustration and churn
A business needs clear strategy and robust process to anchor it. This provides …
⭐️ direction for decision making
⭐️ a method for execution
⭐️ a framework for tracking and evaluation
I encourage you to be RESPONSIVE in your approach ...
🚦have a plan AND be flexible
🚦proactively seek new information
🚦course correct
Being responsive rather than reactive doesn’t mean you’re not bold, decisive, or quick to act.
It does mean channeling your focus and energy, in a managed and structured way -
so you can make things happen; rather than have things happen to you.
Take care, Susan
PLANNING POSTCARD No.5 - Stay Fluid
💌 You’ve got mail!
Hi Planners,
What’s my secret?
25 yrs is a long time to stay in love with a career.
What keeps me engaged, is that Merchandise Planning is so dynamic.
It’s why I challenge stereotypes of Planning being rigid
🙈 I don’t see Planning that way
🙊 I don’t endorse that style of Planning
🙉 I don’t think Planning is effective when it’s inflexible
I appreciate structure and order, but without the constant of change, it wouldn’t be enough for me.
Never has the phrase “we don’t know what we don’t know” been more apt. It will test how flexible and dynamic we really are, with uncertainty in all factors that underpin our art
❓demand
❓stock and supply
❓discounts and margins
… and the TIMING
Planning principles hold in uncertain times, if we STAY FLUID by doing little bits, more often
✅ get new info
✅ interpret
✅ respond
Info doesn’t need to be perfect to inform small actions for the short term.
Risk of wrong decisions is reduced, the learning cycle is sped up.
Stay fluid, and like water, you’ll find a way through or around obstacles and unknowns.
Take care, Susan
PLANNING POSTCARD No.6 - The Patterns of Planning
💌 You’ve got mail!
Hi Planners,
I didn’t think I was good with numbers. Maybe I shouldn’t admit to being a B grade maths student at school (on a good day 😬). But Uni maths and stats were compulsory in my degree, so I became a regular at writing supplementary exams, scraping my way to the next round of pain.
It all changed in a moment of exasperation… I chose to make the pain count, elected to do further studies, earning a Major in Applied Business Statistics.
💊 In addition to enthusiastically applying myself to student life, I started applying myself (semi enthusiastically) to stats
💊 I drilled past exam papers 'til my calculator combusted
💊 In a ‘The Matrix’-like moment, I saw past the numbers to the patterns behind them
And then it all made sense.
Good news - you needn’t go through all that to be an ace in #merchandiseplanning. It’s less about the maths and more about the #patterns, and the commercial thinking you apply to seek them out.
When you start to see the “code”, the numbers will speak to you, telling the real story.
Are you a numbers or patterns person?
Take care, Susan
PLANNING POSTCARD No.7 - Strategy & Scenarios
💌 You’ve got mail!
Hi Planners,
“A science based on estimation” - my first attempt at explaining #MerchandisePlanning to family and friends.
I guess the name is a dead giveaway. Planning means anticipating and preparing for an ever changing future.
We aim to take an informed position, guided by historic learnings, influenced by trend predictions.
Pivotal to this is STRATEGY, highlighted by these great quotes
📌 Begin with the end in mind
📌 The best way to predict the future is to create it
Yes, these are uncertain times, but it doesn’t mean we don’t need Strategy
🎯 it’s the blueprint enabling us to design and engineer intended results
🎯 it defines priority
More than ever, we are speculating in uncertain times, with neither past nor future data to rely on.
SCENARIOS are key to navigating a hyper fluid environment.
Planning alternative outcomes, timeframes, and influences; pre-empting how to respond or counter.
Think of them as mini dress rehearsals for the main event 🎭
As a new future emerges, be well prepared
✅ armed with clear #strategy , and
✅ a series of #scenarios
Take care, Susan
PLANNING POSTCARD No.8 - Sales drive Stock
💌 You’ve got mail!
Hi Planners,
This is my guiding light!
It was the first Planning Principle I learned, and I’ve relied on it ever since.
SALES DRIVE STOCK, not the other way around.
What does it mean?
The sales plan you set, should determine your stock requirement.
Of course, the sales plan should be realistic. That doesn’t mean low balling, but it does mean basing it on something of substance -
✏️ growth, linked to learnings and strategy
✏️ consideration of markdowns and profit
✏️ reference to marketing activity
✏️ and, yes, also to stock health and availability (but in that order 😉)
Often inventory is invested without a clear plan for the size of the sales opportunity.
🔥 A range build with no guardrails is a risky way to go.
As we move through current challenges, and emerge into new ones, this principle is key.
Start with a “realistic” Sales Plan, and build your stock to that, or you could risk creating a whole new overstock problem.
💡 It’s guided me well in the past, and will guide you well into the future.
Take care, Susan
PLANNING POSTCARDS Series One - The Wrap!
💌 You’ve got mail!
Hi Planners,
And that’s a wrap!
8 messages later we’ve come to the end of this Planning Postcard journey.
I really hope you’ve enjoyed receiving them, and that they’ve brought a smile to your face, as was experience receiving mail from my parents, when starting at Uni (*see intro to PLANNING POSTCARD Series)
I’ve dug deep to share my personal
😍 connections and love moments with Planning
🤩 ah-ha moments and brain spasms
🤓 pivotal learning and growth experiences, and
🤔 concepts and principles I’ve distilled along the way
After this chapter, we’ll turn the page, and there will be new challenges and thrills ahead.
The way I see it, you’re equipped for whatever that looks like … that’s the essence of #MerchandisePlanning
I’d love to hear which were your favourite #PlanningPostcards.
Take care, Susan
PS If you enjoyed these PLANNING POSTCARDS, check out Series Two.